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A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."